Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.501536 2.925022 3.394966 3.954671 4.602698 5.328970 6.204304
2025-12-14 1.781165 2.327697 3.000565 3.887867 5.025157 6.431891 8.302021
2025-12-21 1.363804 1.953666 2.744578 3.877998 5.455567 7.568053 10.605575
2025-12-28 1.181755 1.827954 2.758221 4.186443 6.313944 9.354020 14.013765
2026-01-04 0.992486 1.643007 2.640001 4.266047 6.836031 10.721449 17.015312
2026-01-11 0.848649 1.493208 2.538018 4.336447 7.332353 12.093213 20.189900
2026-01-18 0.726507 1.352063 2.419585 4.349965 7.723405 13.332151 23.300069
2026-01-25 0.622170 1.220208 2.290872 4.317652 8.020020 14.437677 26.314265
2026-02-01 0.507790 1.047813 2.060466 4.063949 7.882889 14.772117 28.023691
2026-02-08 0.429331 0.929190 1.908068 3.926176 7.928313 15.420112 30.354997
2026-02-15 0.375956 0.850943 1.819681 3.895254 8.165928 16.439818 33.488993
2026-02-22 0.348295 0.821624 1.823796 4.048314 8.782712 18.247512 38.348426
2026-03-01 0.305219 0.752754 1.739133 4.013067 9.030269 19.401178 42.144027
2026-03-08 0.267541 0.689571 1.657409 3.973484 9.268069 20.576854 46.166851
2026-03-15 0.237858 0.639761 1.597419 3.972952 9.591314 21.973775 50.845418
2026-03-22 0.231368 0.646521 1.670194 4.292135 10.683676 25.167365 59.846101
2026-03-29 0.211751 0.615408 1.646320 4.374872 11.235029 27.227555 66.566434
2026-04-05 0.193871 0.585425 1.620164 4.447411 11.771429 29.318916 73.619980
2026-04-12 0.175393 0.550066 1.574148 4.461402 12.163887 31.119942 80.211050
2026-04-19 0.157209 0.511867 1.514073 4.428339 12.430772 32.650270 86.335353
2026-04-26 0.132983 0.450369 1.379097 4.168385 12.061921 32.560087 88.413121
2026-05-03 0.116082 0.408140 1.291544 4.027207 11.992674 33.218999 92.484089
2026-05-10 0.104647 0.381213 1.244351 3.995520 12.223601 34.687789 98.858778